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Monday, October 05, 2009
Lessons Learned from Stocks’ Rough Ride

There’s a kind of masochism in “celebrating” the one-year anniversary of Wall Street’s collapse.  Yet that’s what the media has been doing for the last couple of weeks—recounting the scary stories of Fannie, and Freddie, and Lehman, and AIG, along with Congress’s rejection of the original $700-billion bank bailout, and the day the market lost a trillion dollars—September 29, 2008.

Funny what a little perspective does for you: Even $1 trillion seems cheap in hindsight! Why, that’s only half our federal budget deficit for this year. And it’s only a drop in the bucket compared to the losses that came next, not only for stocks, but derivatives holders and real estate lenders.

And we survived! There’s a lesson in itself. Not that we’d want to look over the brink again. The horror, the horror! With apologies to Joseph Conrad’s Heart of Darkness, now I know how Marlow felt as he peered into the abyss.

But we made it through. In fact, although hindsight is 20/20, it might be worth a look back—if only to impress upon ourselves the lessons we learned, or should have learned, from the incredible year we’ve been through.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now down slightly more than 10% from where it was 52 weeks ago—but up nearly 50% from its 12-year closing low of 6547.06 on March 9, 2009. And it’s up just over 10% so far this year.

So, what are the stock market lessons you learned?  

If you were panicked into paralysis, you didn’t suffer so much in the end, because the market did rebound. Is “buy and hold” the lesson to be learned? 

If you were following a market timer, will you be renewing your subscription?  (With the exception of Jim Stack of InvesTech Research, who loudly called the bottom in his March 13th issue, few come forward to proclaim their successes.) 

And—be honest now—did you fall victim to your own panic, selling when things were darkest in February? Have you bought back into the market since? If you haven’t, are you cursing your own timing?

If you were “diversified” and everything fell apart, does that shake your belief in asset allocation for the future?

And if you thought it was the “end” for the global financial system, did you question why the world came running into dollars, pushing even the price of gold under $800 an ounce? 

We all have breathed a sigh of relief. Free markets worked—with a “little” government help. But having learned that lesson, we now have a new question to ask: How much is too much “government help”? What will the markets be saying about that a year from now?

Please share the lessons you learned from the market in the past year. And feel free to make your forecast for the new lessons we’re likely to learn in the year ahead! Please post a comment and join the conversation.



More Articles from Terry Savage
Comment on this article: Lessons Learned from Stocks’ Rough Ride
Monday, October 05, 2009 at 7:06:57 PM    by Anonymous
I disagree with the sentence "Free markets worked—with a “little” government help." We did not witness what free markets would have done! We only witnessed what a world-wide effort of Government intervention accomplished.(and intervention used here is not assumed to be inherently good or bad) We will not know what the outcome would have been had free markets been left alone to sort it out.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009 at 9:43:02 AM    by Terry Savage
You are 100 percent correct in your comment. That's why I used quotes around a "little" government help. So now let me post a question back to you -- and others who are reading: With all the benefits of hindsight, what would you have done differently if you were in charge at the time? Would you have decided the markets -- and the global economy -- should have been "left alone to sort it out"? I'm not at all offended by the point you make -- I agree completely in principle. But would they, or you, or I have ever had the courage/faith/insensitivity, etc to actually let the free markets "sort it out"???
Thursday, October 08, 2009 at 5:49:22 PM    by RagnarsRepos
From the day one is born, nothing in life is guaranteed. No correction to this nation's economy is possible without the cleansing action of logical consequences; bankruptcy should lead to liquidation absent a buyer for the failed entity. The economic pain currently being felt is nothing compared to the inevitable result that awaits us. The problem has been increased to the point where the coming correction will result in catastrophic consequences for many in this country. Courage,yes. Faith? Faith is not part of my philosophy. Insensitivity? Not sure what this means exactly but the implication seems to be that if one advocates a free market approach to dealing with the problem that it implies a callous disregard for the welfare of other when it is exactly the opposite that will result from the 'intervention'.
Thursday, October 08, 2009 at 6:19:34 PM    by Terry Savage
Ah, Ragnars-- good to hear from you again! I thought you had forgotten me. And yes, you've called me to task. As I try to weave the middle ground between accountability and sensitivity, you remind me that there is no compromise of principle. But this is going to be very, very tough.
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Ah, Ragnars-- good to hear from you again! I thought you had forgotten me. And yes, you''ve called... Terry Savage


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